CPI Week: The Number That Decides December

Friday's jobs report put a December rate hike back on the table. Tuesday's inflation report decides whether it stays there.

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Friday’s jobs report put a December rate hike back on the table. Tuesday’s inflation report decides whether it stays there. That is the shape of next week: one number on Tuesday, a second on Friday, and the Fed watching both from the sidelines — there is no Fed meeting this week, and the next decision comes Wednesday, December 9. Here is the week, day by day.

Monday, November 9 — The warehouse report (10:00 AM). The Census Bureau’s Wholesale Trade report for September counts what distributors sold and what sits in their warehouses. It is a quiet number with a loud implication: full shelves mean slower orders ahead. Ferguson reports before the open, a read on building supplies and the housing pipeline. Occidental and Tyson report too, their dates estimated rather than confirmed.

Tuesday, November 10 — The inflation report (8:30 AM). The Consumer Price Index for October is the week’s main event. September’s reading was 3.7% over the year, with core inflation at 2.6%. The Fed needs the October number to cool before December 9 — Friday’s jobs report gave it a reason to hike, and only a soft CPI takes that reason away. Real Earnings lands at the same time: the same wage-versus-prices math the jobs report made famous. The NFIB’s small-business optimism survey follows in the morning.

Wednesday, November 11 — Veterans Day: stocks open, bonds closed. The stock market trades normal hours. The bond market is closed, the Fed is closed, and most banks are closed. No major data is scheduled. It is the week’s breather — and a good day to read Tuesday’s inflation report properly, since the bond market cannot react to it until Thursday.

Thursday, November 12 — Claims, home sales, and Cisco (8:30 AM; 10:00 AM; Cisco after the close). Jobless claims land in the morning; the last reading was 189,000, near multi-decade lows, and a jump would be the first sign the hot jobs report is cooling. Existing Home Sales for October follows at 10:00 AM — the last reading was 3.99 million annualized, and every buyer watching the 7.18% mortgage rate is watching this number too. After the close, Cisco reports, the week’s biggest earnings name, with Applied Materials alongside.

Friday, November 13 — The second inflation reading (8:30 AM). The Producer Price Index for October tells us what businesses paid, before those costs reach consumers. September’s reading ran hot, up 1.3% in a month. If October’s is hot again, the Fed’s December decision gets easier — and borrowers’ year gets harder.

Watch next: the Fed’s minutes from its October meeting arrive November 18, and the next big earnings week starts Tuesday, November 17 — Disney, Home Depot, and Nvidia all report that day. The market spent this week learning that a strong economy can be bad news for rates. Next week it learns whether inflation agrees.

Release dates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics November schedule, the Census Bureau release schedule, and the Federal Reserve events diary; earnings dates from the week’s earnings calendar (Ferguson and Cisco confirmed; Occidental, Tyson, TransDigm, and Applied Materials estimated). No Fed speeches were verifiable for November 9–13, so none are named. Sources checked November 6, 2026.

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• 165,000 Jobs, a Record Plunge, and the Phone Tax — this week’s roundup: the jobs report, Thursday’s rout, and the memory squeeze.